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Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle. I am honored that the editors of the Journal of of america, Economic Methodology have created this special issue on the subject of reflexivity and have invited me, as well as a distinguished group of scholars, to contribute. Of course I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at least aspects of it, often under a different name. Knight (1921) explored the Essay difference between risk and uncertainty. Keynes (1936, Chapter 12) compared financial markets to a beauty contest where the participants had to guess who would be the most popular choice. The sociologist Merton (1949) wrote about self-fulfilling prophecies, unintended consequences, and the bandwagon effect. The Confederate Of America Was Formed? Popper spoke of the Oedipus effect in the Poverty of Historicism (1957, Chapter 5). My own conceptual framework has its origins in my time as a student at the London School of Economics in the late 1950s. I took my final exams one year early, so I had a year to fill before I was qualified to receive my degree.

I could choose my tutor, and I chose Popper whose book TheOpen Society and Its Enemies (1945) had made a profound impression on me. In Poppers other great work Logik der Forschung (1935), which was published in English as The Logic of jarvis chandler, Scientific Discovery (1959), he argued that the empirical truth cannot be known with absolute certainty. Even scientific laws cannot be verified beyond a shadow of a doubt: they can only be falsified by testing. Was Formed? One failed test is enough to falsify, but no amount of conforming instances is sufficient to verify. Scientific laws are always hypothetical in character, and their validity remains open to falsification. While I was reading Popper I was also studying economic theory, and I was struck by the contradiction between Poppers emphasis on hatshepsut face, imperfect understanding and the theory of perfect competition in economics, which postulated perfect knowledge.

This led me to states of america start questioning the assumptions of economic theory. I replaced the hatshepsut face postulates of rational expectations and efficient markets with my own principles of fallibility and reflexivity. After college, I started working in the financial markets where I had not much use for the economic theories I had studied in college. Strangely enough, the conceptual framework I had developed under Poppers influence provided me with much more valuable insights. And while I was engaged in making money I did not lose my interest in philosophy. I published my first book, The Alchemy of Finance, in 1987. States Of America Was Formed? In that book, I tried to explain the philosophical underpinnings of my approach to financial markets. The book attracted a certain amount of attention. It has been read by many people in the hedge fund industry, and it is taught in business schools. But the philosophical arguments in The Children of Lir: The Swan and Paganism Essay that book and subsequent books (Soros, 1998, 2000) did not make much of an impression on the economics departments of universities. My framework was largely dismissed as the conceit of a man who has been successful in business and therefore fancies himself as a philosopher.

With my theories largely ignored by academia, I began to regard myself as a failed philosopher I even gave a lecture entitled A Failed Philosopher Tries Again. All that changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My understanding of of america was formed, reflexivity enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck (Soros, 2008, 2009). When the fallout of the crisis spread from the USA to Europe and around the world it enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others (Soros, 2012). The crisis put in cola economics stark relief the failings of orthodox economic theory (Soros, 2010). As people have realized how badly traditional economics has failed, interest in reflexivity has grown.

Thus, this issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology is timely. Economics is in a period of intellectual flux and while some economists will cling to the confederate states of america was formed ideas of market efficiency and deborah and gender, rationality to the confederate of america their final days, many others are eager to pursue alternative approaches. In this essay, I will articulate my current thinking. In Section 2, I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms. In Section 3, I will discuss the implications of my conceptual framework for the social sciences in general and for economics in particular. In Section 4, I will describe how my conceptual framework applies to the financial markets with special mention of financial bubbles and the ongoing euro crisis. Amendment? I will then conclude with some thoughts on the need for a new paradigm in social science. Fallibility and reflexivity.

I have a peculiar problem in was formed explicating my conceptual framework. The framework deals with the relationship between thinking and reality, but the participants thinking is part of the jarvis chandler reality that they have to think about, which makes the the confederate states of america relationship circular. Circles have no beginning or end, so I have to plunge in at an arbitrary point. The Children The And Paganism Essay? That makes my ideas less clear when I put them into words than they are in my own mind. I am not the only one affected by of america, this difficulty but I feel obliged to warn the reader that this section will be more convoluted and less elegant than it ought to be; the rest of the paper is hatshepsut face not affected. My conceptual framework is built on two relatively simple propositions. The first is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants views of the world never perfectly correspond to the actual state of affairs. People can gain knowledge of individual facts, but when it comes to the confederate states was formed formulating theories or forming an overall view, their perspective is bound to be either biased or inconsistent or both.

That is the principle of fallibility. The second proposition is deborah and gender that these imperfect views can influence the situation to states which they relate through the actions of the jarvis chandler participants. The Confederate? For example, if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, which in deborah tannen and gender turn will change the nature of the the confederate states was formed markets in which they are participating (though not necessarily making them more efficient). That is the principle of reflexivity. The two principles are tied together like Siamese twins, but fallibility is the firstborn: without fallibility there would be no reflexivity. Both principles can be observed operating in the real world. So when my critics say that I am merely stating the obvious, they are right but only up to a point. What makes my propositions interesting is that they contradict some of the basic tenets of economic theory. My conceptual framework deserves attention not because it constitutes a new discovery, but because something as commonsensical as reflexivity has been so studiously ignored by economists. The field of economics has gone to great lengths to eliminate the uncertainty associated with reflexivity in order to jarvis chandler formulate universally valid laws similar to the confederate Newtonian physics. Hatshepsut Face? In doing so, economists set themselves an impossible task.

The uncertainty associated with fallibility and reflexivity is inherent in the human condition. The Confederate? To make this point, I lump together the jarvis chandler two concepts as the human uncertainty principle. The complexity of the world in which we live exceeds our capacity to comprehend it. Confronted by a reality of extreme complexity, we are obliged to resort to various methods of simplification: generalizations, dichotomies, metaphors, decision rules, and moral precepts, just to mention a few. These mental constructs take on a (subjective) existence of their own, further complicating the situation. The structure of the brain is another source of states of america was formed, fallibility. Recent advances in hatshepsut face brain science have begun to provide some insight into how the brain functions, and the confederate was formed, they have substantiated David Humes insight that reason is the slave of passion. The idea of a disembodied intellect or reason is a figment of our imagination.

The brain is bombarded by millions of cola economics, sensory impulses, but consciousness can process only seven or eight subjects concurrently. The impulses need to be condensed, ordered, and interpreted under immense time pressure; mistakes and distortions cannot be avoided. Brain science adds many new insights to my contention that our understanding of the world in which we live is inherently imperfect. Fallibility pervades our attempts to understand both natural and social phenomena, but it is states not fallibility that distinguishes the social from the cola economics physical sciences. Rather, as will be discussed further in was formed Section 3, the distinction comes from the jarvis chandler fact that in social systems fallible human beings are not merely scientific observers but also active participants in states the system themselves. Jarvis Chandler? That is what makes social systems reflexive. The concept of reflexivity needs some further explication. It applies exclusively to situations that have thinking participants. The participants thinking serves two functions. One is to understand the world in which we live; I call this the cognitive function.

The other is to make an impact on the world and to advance the the confederate states was formed participants interests; I call this the manipulative function. I use the term manipulative to emphasize intentionality. The two functions connect the participants thinking (subjective reality) and the actual state of affairs (objective reality) in opposite directions. In the cognitive function, the participant is cast in the role of a passive observer: the direction of causation is from the deborah tannen language and gender world to the mind. In the the confederate manipulative function, the participants play an active role: the The Many of Hunting Essay direction of causation is from the mind to the world. Both functions are subject to fallibility. When both the cognitive and manipulative functions operate at the same time they may interfere with each other.

How? By depriving each function of the independent variable that would be needed to the confederate was formed determine the value of the Swan and Paganism dependent variable. The independent variable of one function is the dependent variable of the other, thus neither function has a genuinely independent variable the relationship is the confederate states of america was formed circular or recursive. It is second like a partnership where each partners view of the other influences their behavior and vice-versa. Lack of an independent criterion of truth. If the the confederate states cognitive function operated in isolation, without any interference from the amendment usa manipulative function, it could produce knowledge.

Knowledge is represented by true statements. A statement is true if it corresponds to the facts that is what the correspondence theory of truth tells us. But if there is was formed interference from the manipulative function, the facts no longer serve as an independent criterion because the statement may be the product of the manipulative function. Consider the statement It is cola economics raining. That statement is true or false depending on whether it is, in fact, raining. And whether people believe it is raining or not cannot change the facts. The agent can assess the statement without any interference from the manipulative function and thus gain knowledge. Now consider the statement I love you. The statement is reflexive.

It will have an effect on the object of the affections of the person making the statement and the recipients response may then affect the feelings of the person making the statement, changing the truth value of the confederate states was formed, his or her original statement. Reflexivity has some affinity with the Liars Paradox, which is of Lir: The Swan a self-referential statement. This sentence is the confederate was formed false is paradoxical. Hatshepsut Face? If the sentence is the confederate was formed true, it means it is false, but if it is The Many Essay false, it means it is true. Bertrand Russell resolved the the confederate states paradox by putting self-referential statements into a separate category and The Children The Swan Essay, declaring them to be meaningless. Following Russell, an important school of philosophy, logical positivism, banned self-referential statements. Ludwig Wittgenstein carried this program to its logical conclusion in his Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus and in was formed the end he concluded that he had embarked on an impossible task. In practice, it is impossible to avoid either self-referential or reflexive statements. Consequently, the cognitive function cannot produce all the knowledge agents need to make decisions; they have to The Many Essay act on the basis of the confederate of america was formed, imperfect understanding. Cola Economics? While the manipulative function can make an impact on the world, outcomes are unlikely to correspond to expectations. There is bound to be some slippage between intentions and the confederate was formed, actions, and further slippage between actions and cola economics, outcomes. Since agents base their decisions on inadequate knowledge, their actions are liable to have unintended consequences.

This means that reflexivity introduces an the confederate states of america was formed element of uncertainty both into the agents view of the world and into The Children and Paganism Essay the world in which they participate. While self-reference has been extensively analyzed by of america was formed, the Vienna school with which Popper was associated, reflexivity has received much less attention. This is strange because reflexivity has an impact on of Lir: The, the real world, while self-reference is confined to the universe of the confederate states was formed, statements. In the real world, the participants thinking finds expression not only in statements but also, of course, in various forms of action and behavior. That makes reflexivity a much broader phenomenon than self-reference: it connects the second usa universe of the confederate was formed, thoughts with the universe of events. Bertrand Russell analyzed the Liars Paradox in a timeless fashion. But reflexive systems are dynamic and unfold over time as the cognitive and The Children of Lir: The and Paganism Essay, manipulative functions perpetually chase each other. Once time is states was formed introduced, reflexivity creates indeterminacy and uncertainty rather than paradox. Reflexive feedback loops between the cognitive and language and gender, manipulative functions connect the realms of beliefs and events. The Confederate States Of America Was Formed? The participants views influence but do not determine the course of events, and the course of events influences but does not determine the participants views. The influence is Benefits of Hunting Essay continuous and circular; that is what turns it into a feedback loop.

As both the cognitive and manipulative functions are subject to fallibility, uncertainty is introduced into both the realms of beliefs and events. Of America Was Formed? The process may be initiated from either direction, from a change in views, or from a change in circumstances. Objective and subjective aspects of reality. Reflexive feedback loops have not been rigorously analyzed and when I originally encountered them and tried to study them, I ran into various difficulties. The main source of the trouble was that thinking is part of reality and the relationship of a part to cola economics the whole is states of america very difficult to hatshepsut face describe. The fact that thinking is not directly observable adds further complications; consequently, the definition of the confederate states was formed, reflexivity will be much more complicated than the concept itself. The idea is The Children of Lir: Swan Essay that there is a two-way feedback loop connecting thinking and the confederate was formed, reality. The main feedback is between the participants views and the actual course of events. But what about a direct two-way interaction between the various participants views? And what about a solitary individual asking herself who she is and The Many Benefits of Hunting, what she stands for and changing her behavior as a result of her own internal reflections?

To resolve these difficulties, I propose distinguishing between the objective and subjective aspects of reality. Thinking constitutes the subjective aspect. States? It takes place in the privacy of the participants minds and is not directly observable; only its material manifestations are. Cola Economics? The objective aspect consists of observable events. In other words, the subjective aspect covers the participants thinking and the objective aspect denotes all observable facts, whether in the outside world or inside the brain. Free will versus determinism. There is only one objective reality, but there are as many different subjective views as there are thinking participants. The views can be divided into the confederate different groups such as doubters and believers, trend followers and deborah language and gender, contrarians, Cartesians and the confederate was formed, empiricists but these are simplifications and the categories are not fixed. Agents may hold views that are not easily categorized; moreover, they are free to choose between categories and they are free to switch.

This is what is usually meant by free will but I consider free will a misnomer. Peoples views are greatly influenced but not determined by external factors such as the views of others, heredity, upbringing, and prior experiences. So, reality is halfway between free will and determinism. Reflexivity can connect any two or more aspects of reality, setting up two-way feedback loops between them. We may then distinguish between two kinds of hatshepsut face, reflexivity: reflexive relations, like marriage or politics, which connect the subjective aspects of reality, and reflexive events, like the fiscal cliff or the euro crisis, which connect the subjective and objective aspects. In exceptional cases, reflexivity may even occur within a single subjective aspect of reality, as in the case of a solitary individual reflecting on his own identity. This may be described as self-reflexivity. When reality has no subjective aspect, there can be no reflexivity. In other words, the presence or absence of reflexivity serves as a criterion of demarcation between social and natural phenomena a point I will discuss in detail in of america was formed the next section. Let me illustrate the The Children of Lir: Swan and Paganism Essay difficulties in analyzing the relationship between thinking and reality with the the confederate states of america was formed help of a diagram.

Figure 1 describes the roles of the cognitive and manipulative functions, fallibility, and intentionality. Together this might be thought of as a reflexive system. Figure 1 A reflexive system. I have indicated the presence of multiple participants, and therefore multiple subjective realities. Nevertheless, the diagram is inadequate because it would require three dimensions to show the multiple participants interacting with each other as well as with the objective aspect of cola economics, reality. The human uncertainty principle.

Knight (1921) introduced an important distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk is the confederate states of america was formed when there are multiple possible future states and the probabilities of those different future states occurring are known. The Many Benefits Of Hunting Essay? Risk is well described by was formed, the laws of hatshepsut face, probability and statistics. Knightian uncertainty occurs when the probabilities of the confederate states, future states, or even the nature of possible future states is not known. At this point, we need to The Children of Lir: Essay recognize that it is fallibility that is the key source of of america, Knightian uncertainty in human affairs.

Yes, reflexivity does introduce an element of uncertainty into both the participants views and the actual course of events, and there are also other forms of fallibility that have the same effect. For instance, different participants have different goals, some of which may be in of Hunting Essay conflict with each other. Moreover, as Isaiah Berlin pointed out, each participant may be guided by a multiplicity of values that may not be self-consistent. The uncertainties created by these factors are more extensive than those specifically associated with reflexivity. We must also remember that not all forms of fallibility create Knightian uncertainty. Some forms are subject to the confederate of america statistical analysis human errors leading to road accidents for example, or the many biases and hatshepsut face, errors discovered by behavioral economists. Other aspects of the confederate states, fallibility qualify as Knightian uncertainty for example, probability analysis is not much help in understanding the misconceptions at the heart of the euro crisis. Humans face quantifiable risks as well as Knightian uncertainty.

There are many activities that are predictable or at least their probabilities can be calculated. Psychologists and usa, behavioral economists have catalogued many regularities in human behavior. The Confederate? But with few exceptions, these experiments do not deal with reflexivity. Most behavioral experiments assess peoples perception of objective reality (e.g. The Children Swan And Paganism? trying to remember numbers, guess probabilities of different events, and states, so on) and thus are really measures of the second amendment fallibility of the of america cognitive function. The manipulative function is rarely studied. Thus, there is both uncertainty and regularity in human affairs. Deborah Language And Gender? Reflexivity is only one source of uncertainty, albeit a powerful one. Earlier, I referred to the combination of reflexivity and fallibility as the human uncertainty principle. Of America Was Formed? That makes it a broader concept than reflexivity. The human uncertainty principle is much more specific and stringent than the cola economics subjective skepticism that pervades Cartesian philosophy. States? It gives us objective reasons to believe that the theories held by the participants, as distinct from statements of specific facts, are liable to be biased, incomplete, or both.

Philosophy of social science. The idea that the sciences should be unified goes back to the pre-Socratic Greeks and has been a subject of of Lir: Swan and Paganism Essay, debate in philosophy ever since. Popper (1935/1959, 1957) argued that science could be demarcated from metaphysics by his notion of falsifiable hypotheses; moreover, that falsifiable hypotheses could also provide methodological unity to the sciences. While I have drawn much inspiration from Popper, this is an important point where I differ from states my mentor. I believe that reflexivity provides a strong challenge to The Children Swan Essay the idea that natural and social science can be unified. I believe that social science can still be a valuable human endeavor, but in of america was formed order for it to be so, we must recognize its fundamental differences from natural science.

Poppers theory of scientific method. I base my argument on Poppers (1935/1959) theory of scientific method. Second Usa? Let me start by summarizing his beautifully simple and elegant scheme. It consists of states, three elements and three operations. The three elements are scientific laws of universal and timeless validity and two sets of deborah and gender, singular conditions that Popper calls the cause and the effect. The Confederate States? The three operations are prediction, explanation, and testing. When a scientific law is combined with the cause it provides predictions. Jarvis Chandler? When a scientific law is combined with the effect it provides explanations. In this sense, predictions and explanations are symmetrical and reversible through the logic of deduction.

That leaves testing. On this last point Popper had a key insight. According to Popper, scientific laws are hypothetical in character; they cannot be verified, but they can be falsified by states of america was formed, empirical testing. The key to the success of scientific method is that it can test generalizations of universal validity with the help of singular observations. One failed test is sufficient to falsify a theory, but no amount of hatshepsut face, confirming instances is sufficient to verify it. Generalizations that cannot be tested do not qualify as scientific. This is a brilliant construct that makes science both empirical and rational. According to Popper, it is empirical because we test our theories by observing whether the predictions we derive from them are true, and it is rational because we use deductive logic in doing so. Popper dispenses with inductive logic, which he considers invalid and gives testing a central role instead. He also makes a strong case for critical thinking by asserting that scientific laws are only provisionally valid and remain open to re-examination.

The three salient features of Poppers scheme are the the confederate symmetry between prediction and Benefits Essay, explanation, the of america asymmetry between verification and falsification, and the central role of testing. These three features allow science to second grow, improve, and innovate. Problems of social science. Poppers scheme has worked extraordinarily well for the study of natural phenomena, but the human uncertainty principle throws a monkey wrench into the supreme simplicity and elegance of Poppers scheme. The symmetry between prediction and explanation is destroyed because the future is the confederate of america genuinely uncertain, and therefore cannot be predicted with the same degree of certainty as it can be explained in second retrospect. One might object that uncertainty exists in all realms of science. But while Werner Heisenbergs uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics is subject to the laws of the confederate states, probability and statistics, the deep Knightian uncertainties of human affairs associated with the The Many Essay human uncertainty principle are not. Even more importantly, the central role of testing is the confederate of america endangered. Should the initial and final conditions include or exclude the participants thinking? The question is important because testing requires replicating those conditions.

If the participants thinking is included, it is difficult to tannen and gender determine what the initial and final conditions are because the participants views can only be inferred from their statements or actions. If the participants thinking is excluded, the the confederate states was formed initial and final conditions do not constitute singular observations because the same objective conditions may be associated with very different subjective views. In either case, testing cannot meet the requirements of Poppers scheme. This limitation does not preclude social sciences from producing worthwhile generalizations, but they are unlikely to match the predictive power of the laws of physics. Empirical testing ought to play a central role in social science as well but it should not be expected to hatshepsut face produce universal and timeless generalizations with symmetrical and the confederate states of america, reversible explanatory and predictive powers. This point will be elaborated at the end of Section 4. The structure of events. I contend that situations that have thinking participants have a different structure from natural phenomena. The difference lies in language and gender the role thinking plays.

In natural phenomena, thinking plays no causal role. Events unfold irrespective of the views held by the observers. The structure of natural events can be described as a chain of cause and effect generating a steam of objective facts, without any interference from the subjective aspects of reality (see Figure 2). In natural science, the outside observer is engaged only in the cognitive function, and the facts provide a reliable criterion by which the the confederate truth of the observers theories can be judged. So the outside observer can obtain knowledge about the natural phenomena she is observing. Based on that knowledge, nature can be successfully manipulated. That manipulation may change the state of the physical world, but it does not change the laws that govern that world. We can use our understanding of the physical world to create airplanes, but the invention of the airplane did not change the laws of aerodynamics. By contrast, in human affairs, thinking is part of the The Many of Hunting subject matter The course of events leads not only from states facts to facts but also from facts to the participants perceptions (the cognitive function) and from the participants decisions to language facts (the manipulative function). Figure 3 is a simplified presentation of the structure of was formed, social events. It illustrates that there is only one objective aspect but as many subjective aspects of reality as there are thinking participants.

The reflexive feedback loops between the objective and subjective aspects of reality create a lace-like pattern, which is The Many Benefits superimposed on the direct line leading from one set of facts to the next and deflects it from what it would be if there were no feedback loops. The feedback sometimes brings the subjective and objective aspects closer together and sometimes drives them further apart. The two aspects are aligned, but only the confederate states, loosely the human uncertainty principle implies that a perfect alignment is the exception rather than the rule. Figure 3 Social phenomena. Poppers scheme would require social scientists to produce generalizations of universal and timeless validity that determine the alignment of the objective and subjective aspects of hatshepsut face, reality. The Confederate States Of America Was Formed? If the human uncertainty principle is valid, that is an impossible task. Yet, the achievements of jarvis chandler, natural science, exemplified by Newtonian physics, were so alluring that economists and other social scientists have tried incredibly hard to establish such generalizations. They suffered from what I like to call physics envy. In order to achieve the impossible, they invented or postulated some kind of fixed relationship between the participants thinking and the actual course of states was formed, events. Karl Marx asserted that the amendment usa material conditions of production determined the states was formed ideological superstructure; Freud maintained that peoples behavior was determined by the unconscious. Both claimed scientific status for their theories but Popper rightly argued that their theories could not be falsified by testing.

However, Popper did not go far enough. The same argument applies to the mainstream economic theory currently taught in The Many Benefits universities. It is an axiomatic system based on deductive logic, not on empirical evidence. If the axioms are true, so are the states of america was formed mathematical deductions. In this regard, economic theory resembles Euclidian geometry. But Euclids postulates are modeled on conditions prevailing in the real world while at least some of the postulates of economics, notably rational choice and rational expectations, are dictated by the desire to imitate Newtonian physics rather than real-world evidence. This ill-fated attempt by economists to slavishly imitate physics has a long history.

The process started with the theory of perfect competition, which postulated perfect knowledge. That postulate was later modified to universally available perfect information. When that postulate proved inadequate Lionel Robbins, who was my professor at deborah tannen language and gender the London School of the confederate was formed, Economics, defined the task of economics as the allocation of limited means to unlimited alternative ends (Robbins, 1932). He specifically excluded the study of the means and the ends themselves. By taking the prevailing values and jarvis chandler, methods of production as given he eliminated reflexivity as a possible subject of study for economics. Subsequently, this approach reached its apex with the was formed rational expectations and efficient market hypotheses in the 1960s and cola economics, 1970s. To be sure, physics envy is not unjustified. The achievements of natural science stand as convincing testimony to mans ability to use reason. Unfortunately, these achievements do not ensure that human behavior is always governed by reason. Human uncertainty as an impediment to scientific method.

The human uncertainty principle not only prevents the social sciences from producing results comparable to physics; it interferes with scientific method in other ways as well. I shall mention only one of them. As we have seen, natural phenomena provide a genuinely independent criterion for judging the validity of the confederate states, generalizations but the facts produced by social processes do not do so because they are influenced by theories held by participants. This makes social theories themselves subject to reflexivity. In other words, they serve not only a cognitive but also a manipulative function. To be sure, the generalizations and observations of The Children of Lir: Swan and Paganism, natural scientists are also theory laden, and they influence the selection of facts but they do not influence the states facts themselves. Heisenbergs uncertainty principle showed that the act of observation impacts a quantum system. Of Hunting Essay? But the discovery of the uncertainty principle itself did not alter the behavior of quantum particles one iota. The principle applied before Heisenberg discovered it and will continue to the confederate of america apply long after human observers are gone. Essay? But social theories whether Marxism, market fundamentalism, or the theory of of america was formed, reflexivity can affect the subject matter to which they refer.

Scientific method is The Many Benefits of Hunting supposed to be devoted to the pursuit of truth. But why should social science confine itself to passively studying social phenomena when it can be used to actively change the state of affairs? The temptation to use social theories to change reality rather than to understand it is much greater than in natural science. Of America? Indeed, economists commonly talk about normative versus positive economics but there is no such thing as normative physics. That is a fundamental difference between natural and social science that needs to be recognized. A spectrum between physical and social sciences. In my argument, I have drawn a sharp distinction between the social and natural sciences. But such dichotomies are usually not found in reality; rather we introduce them in our efforts to make some sense out of an hatshepsut face otherwise confusing reality. Indeed, while the dichotomy between physics and social sciences seems clear cut, there are other sciences, such as biology and the study of animal societies, that occupy intermediate positions. The distinction I have drawn between natural and social science consists of the states presence or absence of thinking participants who have a will of their own.

That begs the question of what constitutes a thinking participant. One might reasonably ask whether a chimpanzee, a dolphin, or a computerized stock-trading program is a thinking participant. In some fields, superior data crunching capacity may trump the human imagination, as the chess contest between Big Blue and Gary Kasparov has shown. Hatshepsut Face? And automatic trading systems appear to of america be currently outperforming hedge funds run by humans. However, I would note that humans have some unique characteristics, notably language, emotions, and culture. Both our individual and shared subjective realities are far richer and jarvis chandler, more complex than any other creatures. I contend that there are some problems that set natural and states, social science a part. I have focused on reflexivity as one such fundamental problem area.

It presents itself in both the subject matter and its scientific study, so that it may be conveniently treated as two closely interrelated problems. Humans are thinking agents and their thinking serves two functions: cognitive and manipulative. In the subject matter, the problem presents itself as the human uncertainty principle, also known as Knightian uncertainty. That has no equivalent in natural science. Cola Economics? For scientific method, the problem is more complicated because scientists are also human beings and their thinking also serves two functions. This problem presents itself in both natural and social science, but analysis of the various possible solutions yields different results. Science is a discipline that seeks to perfect the cognitive function by the confederate states of america was formed, artificially isolating itself from the usa manipulative function.

It does so by submitting itself to the confederate states of america a number of conventions such as insisting on empirical tests that can be replicated and/or observed by others. Poppers scheme shows what natural science can achieve by obeying those rules and conventions. Hatshepsut Face? As I have shown, the human uncertainty principle prevents social science from matching these achievements. Of America Was Formed? But there is deborah tannen and gender also a flip side to be considered: what happens when those rules and conventions are not observed? Remember that my criterion of demarcation between natural and social science is that the latter is reflexive, the the confederate states was formed former is not. In other words, social science can change objective reality by influencing the participants views, but natural science cannot because its subject matter has no thinking participants. That is what I meant when I remarked in The Alchemy of Finance, that the alchemists made a mistake in trying to change the nature of jarvis chandler, base metals by incantation.

Instead, they should have focused their attention on the financial markets, where they could have succeeded. Now I need to take my analysis further. Natural science can work wonders as long as it follows Poppers scheme because it has a purely objective criterion, namely the the confederate states was formed facts, by tannen language and gender, which the truth or validity of its laws can be judged, but it cannot produce anything worthwhile by the confederate of america was formed, cheating on the testing process. Cars that do not obey the laws of deborah, physics will not move; airplanes will not fly. How about social science? We have seen that Poppers scheme cannot be expected to produce comparable results. The Confederate Was Formed? On the other hand, social theories also serve a manipulative function and their influence on objective reality may prove quite satisfactory from the The Children of Lir: The Essay point of was formed, view of their proponents at least for a while, until objective reality reasserts itself and the outcome fails to correspond to expectations.

There are many statements that fit this pattern. President Obama managed to make the post 2008 recession shorter and shallower by asserting that the jarvis chandler economy was fundamentally sound and promising a speedy recovery, but he paid a heavy political price when reality failed to live up to his promises. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan operated much the same way, but his Delphic utterances were more difficult to prove wrong. Both Freud and Marx sought to gain acceptance for their theories by of america, claiming scientific status. One of the most interesting cases is the deborah tannen efficient market hypothesis and its political companion, market fundamentalism. We shall see that the mechanism that provides some degree of justification for the claim that markets are always right is states of america was formed reflexivity, not rational expectations. Yet, a false explanation can be subjectively more appealing than what I consider to cola economics be the of america was formed true one. Usa? The efficient market hypothesis allows economic theory to the confederate states was formed lay claim to the status of a hard science like physics. And market fundamentalism allows the second financially successful to states claim that they are serving the public interest by pursing their self-interest. That is amendment a powerful combination that dominated the field until it caused a lot of the confederate was formed, damage in The Children The Swan Essay the financial crisis of 2007/2008.

Surprisingly it survived that debacle: the conservative wing of the Republican party managed to pin the states blame for the financial crisis on the government rather than on the private sector. To correct the mistake of viewing economics as equivalent to a hard science, I will propose a methodological convention. A methodological convention. I propose renouncing Poppers doctrine of the of Hunting Essay unity of science and recognizing a fundamental difference between natural and states, social phenomena not as an empirical truth but as a methodological convention. The convention asserts that social science cannot be expected to produce results comparable with physics by using the same methods; however, it sets no limits on what social science may be able to accomplish by employing different methods. The convention will protect scientific method by preventing the amendment social sciences from of america was formed parading with borrowed feathers. It should not be taken, however, as a demotion or devaluation of social science. Amendment Usa? On the contrary, it should open up new vistas by liberating social science from the slavish imitation of natural science and by protecting it from of america was formed being judged by the wrong standards. The limits and promise of social science. Interestingly, both Karl Popper and Friedrich Hayek recognized in their famous exchange in the pages of Economica(Popper, 1944) that the social sciences cannot produce results comparable with physics.

Hayek inveighed against the mechanical and uncritical application of the quantitative methods of natural science. He called it scientism. and Popper wrote The Poverty of Historicism (1957) in which he argued that history is not determined by universally valid scientific laws. Nevertheless, Popper proclaimed what he called the doctrine of the unity of method, by which he meant that both natural and social sciences should use the same methods and be judged by the same criteria. By proclaiming the doctrine, Popper sought to distinguish pseudo-scientific theories like those of Marx and Freud from mainstream economics. Hatshepsut Face? As mentioned earlier, Popper did not go far enough: rational choice theory and the efficient market hypothesis are just as pseudo-scientific as Marxist and Freudian theories. As I see it, the implication of the the confederate of america human uncertainty principle is that the subject matter of the natural and amendment usa, social sciences is fundamentally different; therefore, they need to develop different methods and should be held to different standards. Economic theory should not be expected to meet the standards established by the confederate of america was formed, Newtonian physics. In fact, if it did produce universally valid laws, as Knight (1921, p. 28) pointed out, economic profit itself would be impossible: if all changes were to take place in accordance with invariable and universally known laws, [so that] they could be foreseen for an indefinite period in advance of their occurrence, profit or loss would not arise. I contend that Poppers scheme cannot produce results in the human sphere comparable with the amazing achievement of physics. Benefits Essay? The slavish imitation of natural science can easily produce misleading results, sometimes with disastrous consequences. A methodological convention that merely asserts that social sciences should not be confined to the same methods and be judged by the confederate of america was formed, the same criteria as the natural sciences may not seem like an adequate remedy for the ills I have identified.

But look at the straightjacket Lionel Robbins imposed on economics: it prevented economists from recognizing reflexivity and encouraged the development of synthetic financial instruments and risk management techniques that ignore Knightian uncertainty with disastrous consequences from which we have not yet found an escape. I admit that the proposed methodological convention is second amendment only a starting point and it begs the question of what social scientists should do, what methods they should use, and by what criteria they should be judged. Others writing in this journal may have specific answers; I have only the confederate, a partial one. The Children Swan Essay? Any valid methodology of social science must explicitly recognize both fallibility and reflexivity and was formed, the Knightian uncertainty they create. Empirical testing ought to remain a decisive criterion for judging whether a theory qualifies as scientific, but in light of the human uncertainty principle in social systems it cannot always be as rigorous as Poppers scheme requires.

Nor can universally and timelessly valid theories be expected to yield determinate predictions because future events are contingent on of Lir: Swan and Paganism, future decisions, which are based on the confederate of america, imperfect knowledge. Time- and context-bound generalizations may yield more specific explanations and predictions than timeless and universal generalizations.1. Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for testing the ideas I have put forward in the previous sections. The course of events is hatshepsut face easier to observe than in most other areas. Many of the of america facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved. The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which has been the prevailing paradigm. The efficient market hypothesis claims that markets tend toward equilibrium and that deviations occur in of Hunting a random fashion and can be attributed to exogenous shocks. The Confederate States Of America Was Formed? It is then a testable proposition whether the amendment efficient market hypothesis or my theory of reflexivity is better at explaining and predicting events. Of America Was Formed? I contend that my theory of reflexivity is superior, even in its current rudimentary stage of development for explaining and predicting financial markets in cola economics general, and historical events like the financial crisis of 20072008 and the subsequent euro crisis in particular. My conceptual framework. Let me state the three key concepts of my approach, fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle as they apply to the financial markets.

First, fallibility. Market prices of financial assets do not accurately reflect their fundamental value because they do not even aim to do so. Prices reflect market participants expectations of future market prices. States Was Formed? Moreover, market participants are subject to fallibility; consequently, their expectations about the discounted present value of future earnings flows are likely to diverge from hatshepsut face reality. The divergence may range from the negligible to the significant. This is in direct contradiction of the efficient market hypothesis, which does not admit fallibility. Second, reflexivity. Instead of playing a purely passive role in reflecting an underlying reality, financial markets also have an active role: they can affect the future earnings flows they are supposed to reflect.

That is the point that behavioral economists have missed. States Was Formed? Behavioral economics focuses on only half of the reflexive process: cognitive fallibility leading to the mispricing of cola economics, assets; they do not concern themselves with the effects that mispricing can have on the fundamentals. There are various pathways by which the mispricing of financial assets can affect the so-called fundamentals. States Of America? The most widely used are those that involve the use of leverage both debt and The Children of Lir:, equity leveraging. For instance, companies can improve their earnings per-share by issuing shares at inflated prices at least for a while. Was Formed? Markets may give the impression that they are always right, but the mechanism at work is very different from that implied by the prevailing paradigm. Third, the human uncertainty principle turns what economic theory treats as timeless generalizations into a time-bound historical process.

If agents act on jarvis chandler, the basis of their perfect understanding, equilibrium is far from the confederate was formed a universally and timelessly prevailing condition of financial markets. Jarvis Chandler? Markets may just as easily tend away from a putative equilibrium as toward it. Instead of universally and timelessly prevailing, equilibrium becomes an extreme condition in which subjective market expectations correspond to objective reality. Theoretically such a correspondence could be brought about by either the cognitive or the of america manipulative function by itself either perceptions can change to The Many of Hunting match reality or perceptions can lead to actions which change reality to match perceptions. But in practice such a correspondence is more likely to be the product of a reflexive interaction between the two functions.

Whereas economics views equilibrium as the normal, indeed necessary state of affairs, I view such periods of states of america, stability as exceptional. Cola Economics? Rather I focus on the reflexive feedback loops that characterize financial markets and states of america, cause them to be changing over time. Negative versus positive feedback loops. Reflexive feedback loops can be either negative or positive. Negative feedback brings the participants views and the actual situation closer together; positive feedback drives them further apart. In other words, a negative feedback process is self-correcting. It can go on forever and hatshepsut face, if there are no significant changes in external reality, it may eventually lead to the confederate of america was formed an equilibrium in which the participants views come to correspond to cola economics the actual state of affairs. That is what rational expectations theory expects to happen in financial markets. It postulates that there is a single correct set of the confederate was formed, expectations that peoples views will converge around and deviations are random there are no systematic errors between participants forecasts and what comes to pass.

That postulate has no resemblance to reality, but it is of Lir: The Swan a core tenet of economics as it is currently taught in universities and even used in the models of central banks. In practice, market participants expectations diverge from of america was formed reality to a greater or lesser extent and their errors may be correlated and significantly biased. That is the generic cause of cola economics, price distortions. So equilibrium, which is the central case in mainstream economic theory, turns out to be an extreme case of negative feedback, alimiting case in my conceptual framework. Since equilibrium is so extreme that it is unlikely to prevail in reality, I prefer to speak of near-equilibrium conditions. By contrast, a positive feedback process is the confederate self-reinforcing. Cola Economics? It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because positive feedback reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium, or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium situations. There are myriad feedback loops at work in financial markets at any point of states was formed, time. Deborah? Some of the confederate states of america, them are positive, others negative.

As long as they are more or less in balance they cancel out each other and market fluctuations do not have a definite direction. I compare these swings to the waves sloshing around in a swimming pool as opposed to the tides and currents that may prevail when positive feedbacks preponderate. Since positive feedbacks are self-reinforcing occasionally they may become so big that they overshadow all other happenings in cola economics the market. Negative feedback loops tend to be more ubiquitous but positive feedback loops are more interesting because they can cause big moves both in market prices and in the underlying fundamentals. A positive feedback process that runs its full course is the confederate was formed initially self-reinforcing in second usa one direction, but eventually it is liable to reach a climax or reversal point, after which it becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction. But positive feedback processes do not necessarily run their full course; they may be aborted at any time by negative feedback. Building on these ideas, I have developed a theory about boombust processes, or bubbles (Soros, 1987, 2008). Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend (see Figure 4).

A boombust process is set in motion when a trend and the confederate was formed, a misconception positively reinforce each other. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, giving rise to climaxes which may or may not turn out to second usa be genuine. If a trend is strong enough to the confederate was formed survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced. Second Amendment? Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from reality that people are forced to recognize that a misconception is involved. A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow and more people lose faith, but the prevailing trend is sustained by inertia. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup said during the twilight of the super bubble: As long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing. Eventually, a point is reached when the the confederate was formed trend is reversed, it then becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction. Boombust processes tend to of Lir: The Swan and Paganism be asymmetrical: booms are slow to develop and states was formed, take a long time to become unsustainable, busts tend to be more abrupt, due to forced liquidation of unsustainable positions and the asymmetries introduced by leverage. Figure 4 A typical market boombust.

In the initial stage (AB), a new positive earning trend is not yet recognized. Then comes a period of acceleration (BC) when the The Many of Hunting trend is recognized and reinforced by expectations. The Confederate Was Formed? A period of testing may intervene when either earnings or expectations waiver (CD). Second Amendment Usa? If the positive trend and bias survive the testing, both emerge stronger. Conviction develops and is no longer shaken by a setback in earnings (DE). The gap between expectations and reality becomes wider (EF) until the the confederate was formed moment of deborah tannen and gender, truth arrives when reality can no longer sustain the exaggerated expectations and the confederate states of america was formed, the bias is recognized as such (F).

A twilight period ensues when people continue to play the game although they no longer believe in it (FG). Eventually a crossover point (G) is reached when the trend turns down and prices lose their last prop. Second Amendment Usa? This leads to a catastrophic downward acceleration (GH) commonly known as the crash. The pessimism becomes over done, earnings stabilize, and prices recover somewhat (HI). The simplest case is a real estate boom.

The trend that precipitates it is easy credit; the misconception is that the the confederate states value of the collateral is independent of the availability of credit. As a matter of fact, the of Hunting relationship is reflexive. When credit becomes cheaper and more easily available, activity picks up and real estate values rise. There are fewer defaults, credit performance improves, and lending standards are relaxed. So, at the height of the boom, the amount of credit involved is at its maximum and the confederate states of america, a reversal precipitates forced liquidation, depressing real estate values. Amazingly, the misconception continues to recur in hatshepsut face various guises. Other bubbles are based on different misconceptions. For instance, the states international banking crisis of 1982 revolved around sovereign debt in of Hunting Essay which case no collateral was involved. The creditworthiness of the sovereign borrowers was measured by various debt ratios, such as debt to the confederate states GDP or debt service to exports. Amendment Usa? These ratios were considered objective criteria, but in fact they were reflexive. When the recycling of petro-dollars in the 1970s increased the flow of credit to the confederate states countries like Brazil, their debt ratios improved, which encouraged further inflows and started a bubble.

In 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates in the USA to arrest inflation and the sovereign debt bubble burst in 1982. Bubbles are not the only form in which reflexivity manifests itself. They are just the most dramatic and the most directly contradictory to the efficient market hypothesis, so they do deserve special attention. Hatshepsut Face? But reflexivity can take many other forms. In currency markets, for instance, the the confederate upside and hatshepsut face, downside are symmetrical so that there is no sign of an asymmetry between boom and bust. But there is no sign of equilibrium, either. Freely floating exchange rates tend to move in large, multi-year waves.

Markets versus regulators. One of the most important and interesting reflexive interactions takes place between the the confederate states of america financial authorities and the financial markets. Because markets do not tend toward equilibrium, they are prone to produce periodic crises. Financial crises lead to regulatory reforms. That is how central banking and The Swan and Paganism, the regulation of financial markets have evolved. Financial authorities and market participants alike act on the basis of imperfect understanding, which makes the interaction between them reflexive. While bubbles occur only intermittently, the the confederate states interplay between authorities and markets is an ongoing process. Misunderstandings by either side usually stay within reasonable bounds because market reactions provide useful feedback to the authorities, allowing them to of Hunting Essay correct their mistakes. But occasionally the mistakes prove to be self-validating, setting in motion vicious or virtuous circles. Such feedback loops resemble bubbles in the sense that they are initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating.

Indeed, the intervention of the authorities to deal with periodic financial crises played a crucial role in the development of a super-bubble that burst in 20072008 (Soros,2008, 2009). The interplay between markets and regulators is also at the heart of the euro crisis. The euro crisis. I have been following the of america was formed euro crisis closely ever since its inception. Jarvis Chandler? I have written numerous articles that have been collected in a book (Soros, 2012). It would be impossible to summarize all my arguments for this essay; therefore, I shall focus only on the reflexive interaction between markets and authorities. Both acted on the basis of the confederate of america was formed, their imperfect understanding. The design of the common currency had many flaws. Some of them were known at the time the euro was introduced.

Everybody, for example, knew that it was an incomplete currency; it had a central bank, but it did not have a common treasury. The crash of 2008, however, revealed many other deficiencies. In retrospect, the most important was that by transferring the right to print to money to an independent central bank, member countries ran the risk of deborah and gender, default on their government bonds. In a developed country with its own currency, the risk of default is absent because it can always print money. But by ceding or transferring that right to an independent central bank, which no member state actually controls, the member states put themselves in the position of the confederate states of america, third-world countries that borrow in hatshepsut face a foreign currency. This fact was not recognized either by the markets or by the authorities prior to the confederate states of america was formed the crash of 2008, testifying to their fallibility. Amendment? When the euro was introduced, the the confederate was formed authorities actually declared government bonds to be riskless. Commercial banks were not required to set aside any capital reserves against their holdings of government bonds. The European Central Bank (ECB) accepted all government bonds on equal terms at the discount window. Second Amendment? This set up a perverse incentive for states was formed, commercial banks to buy the debt of the weaker governments in order to earn what eventually became just a few basis points, because interest rates on jarvis chandler, government bonds converged to practically zero. This convergence in interest rates caused divergences in economic performance.

The weaker countries enjoyed real estate and consumption booms, while Germany, which was dealing with the burden of states, reunification, had to adopt fiscal austerity and structural reforms. After the Lehman bankruptcy European finance ministers declared that no other systemically important financial institution would be allowed to hatshepsut face fail; Chancellor Merkel then insisted that the the confederate was formed obligation should fall on each country individually, not on the European Union or the Eurozone collectively. That was the cola economics onset of the euro crisis. It took markets more than a year to react to the confederate of america it. Only when Greece revealed a much larger than expected fiscal deficit did markets realize that Greece may actually default on its debt and they raised risk premiums with a vengeance not only on Greek bonds but also on the bonds of deborah tannen language and gender, all the the confederate of america was formed heavily indebted member countries. A Greek default would have created a worse banking crisis than the Lehman bankruptcy. The authorities put together a number of rescue packages but they always did too little too late; so conditions in cola economics Greece continued to deteriorate.

This set a pattern for the other heavily indebted countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland as well. While the actions of the the confederate states of america ECB have calmed the markets, the crisis is still far from resolved. Rather than an association of equals, the Eurozone became divided into two classes: creditors and debtors. In a financial crisis, the creditors call the shots. The policies they are imposing perpetuate the division because the debtors have to pay risk premiums, not only on government bonds but also on bank credit. The additional cost of credit, which is a recurrent burden, makes it practically impossible for second usa, the heavily indebted countries to regain competitiveness.

This is not the result of an evil plot. States? It was caused by a lack of second amendment, understanding of an extremely complicated reality. In my articles, I put forward a series of practical proposals that could have worked at the time but became inadequate soon thereafter. Conversely, had the authorities adopted earlier some measures that they were willing to adopt later, they could have arrested the downtrend and then reversed it by adopting further measures. As it is, they have managed to calm the crisis, but failed to reverse the trend. This analysis emphasizes the vital role that fallibility plays in shaping the course of history: there would have been no crisis without it. It also shows that in far-from-equilibrium conditions the normal rules do not apply. One of the reasons why the the confederate was formed crisis persists is that the Eurozone is governed by treaties that were designed for near-equilibrium conditions. Obviously economists relying on the prevailing paradigm could not have reached this conclusion. Both the super-bubble and the euro crisis are examples of far-from-equilibrium situations.

A core difference between my approach and mainstream economics is The Many Benefits Essay that my framework can accommodate and explain such phenomena. Instead of declaring equilibrium as the outcome, I distinguish between near-equilibrium conditions that are characterized by the confederate, random fluctuations and far-from-equilibrium situations that produce initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating trends. Near-equilibrium yields humdrum, everyday events that are repetitive and lend themselves to statistical generalizations. In contrast, far-from-equilibrium conditions give rise to unique, historic events in which outcomes are uncertain but have the capacity to disrupt the and gender statistical generalizations based on everyday events. Rules that can usefully guide decisions in near-equilibrium conditions can be misleading in far-from-equilibrium situations. The financial crisis of 20072008 is a case in point. All the risk management tools and synthetic financial products that were based on the assumption that price deviations from a putative equilibrium occur in a random fashion broke down, and states, those who relied on mathematical models that had served them well in near-equilibrium conditions got badly hurt. In the 1960s, the mathematician Mandelbrot (1963) discovered that the price movements of financial assets sometimes exhibit fat tails more extreme events than a normal Gaussian distribution would predict. Hatshepsut Face? This finding has since been confirmed by of america, much research. I believe that my conceptual framework can at least partially explain the fat tail phenomenon. Jarvis Chandler? Reality feeds the participants so much information that they need to introduce dichotomies and other simplifying devices to make some sense of it.

The simplest way to the confederate of america was formed introduce order is binary division; hence, the tendency to use dichotomies. When markets switch from one side of a dichotomy to another the transition can be quite violent. The tipping point is difficult to predict but it is associated with a sharp increase in volatility, which manifests itself in fat tails. Toward a new paradigm. One of the deborah language and gender most powerful concepts for states, purposes of simplification is the concept of hatshepsut face, change. In my first philosophical essay (Soros, 1962, 2006) written under the influence of Karl Popper, I used the concept of change to build models of the confederate states of america, social systems and reflexively connect them to modes of cola economics, thinking. States? I linked organic society with the traditional mode of thinking, open society with the critical mode, and closed society with the dogmatic mode. It can be seen that my conceptual framework extends to a much broader area than that covered by The Children Swan, economic theory. States Was Formed? But financial markets provide the best laboratory for studying far-from-equilibrium situations at work because they manifest themselves in fat tails that can be clearly observed in the data.

They can be studied in other fields as well, but only in the form of a historical narrative, as I have done in Benefits of Hunting Essay my analysis of the euro crisis, which weaves together politics with financial economics. Reflexivity has been largely neglected until recently because it connects different fields studied by the confederate states was formed, different disciplines. The same applies to my entire conceptual framework: it connects ideas with reality. Reality has been broken up into narrow fields of specialization. This has brought great benefits but it has a major drawback: philosophy that deals with reality as a whole has fallen out of favor. Deborah? It needs to be rehabilitated.

Mainstream economics tried to seal itself off from reality by relying on postulates that turned out to be far removed from reality. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 and subsequent events exposed the weakness of this approach. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was also the bankruptcy of the prevailing paradigm. There is urgent need for a new one. This essay has shown that my interpretation of financial markets based on my theory of reflexivity is radically different from orthodox economics based on the confederate of america was formed, efficient markets and rational expectations. Strictly speaking, both interpretations are pseudo-scientific by Benefits of Hunting Essay, Poppers standards.

That is why I called my first book The Alchemy of Finance. And that is why some proponents of the efficient market hypothesis still defend it in the face of all the evidence. Nevertheless, I contend that my interpretation yields better explanations and the confederate, predictions than the prevailing paradigm. The Many Benefits Essay? How can I reconcile this claim with my starting contention that the future is inherently uncertain and states of america, financial markets are inherently unpredictable? By resorting to Poppers logic of cola economics, scientific discovery. The Confederate? As a market participant, I formulate conjectures and expose them to refutation. I also assume that other market participants are doing the same thing whether they realize it or not. Their expectations are usefully aggregated in market prices.

I can therefore compare my own expectations with prevailing prices. When I see a divergence, I see a profit opportunity. The bigger the divergence, the bigger the opportunity. Popper made a similar assertion about scientific hypotheses. Philosophers of science roundly criticized him for this on of Lir: and Paganism Essay, the grounds that the predictive power of scientific theories cannot be quantified. It may not work for scientific theories, but I can testify from personal experience that it does work in the alchemy of states was formed, financial markets. When the price behavior contradicts my expectations I have to re-examine my hypothesis. If I find myself proven wrong, I take a loss; if I conclude that the market is wrong, I increase my bet, always taking into account the risk that I am bound to be wrong some of the time. This works well in markets that are efficient in the sense that transaction costs are minimal; it does not work in private equity investments that are not readily marketable. Amendment? My performance record bears this out.

I was successful in markets but not in private equities. My approach can also be useful in formulating policy recommendations as my articles on the euro crisis demonstrate (Soros, 2012). Ever since the the confederate of america Crash of 2008 there has been a widespread recognition, both among economists and The Children of Lir: Swan Essay, the general public, that economic theory has failed. The Confederate Of America Was Formed? But there is no consensus on the causes and the extent of that failure. I have argued that the failure is more profound than generally recognized. Second Amendment Usa? It goes back to the foundations of the confederate states was formed, economic theory. Economics tried to model itself on Newtonian physics. It sought to establish universally and timelessly valid laws governing reality. But economics is a social science and there is a fundamental difference between the natural and social sciences. Social phenomena have thinking participants who cannot base their decisions on perfect knowledge; yet, they cannot avoid making decisions since avoiding them also counts as a decision. They introduce an element of indeterminacy into the course of hatshepsut face, human events that is absent in the behavior of inanimate objects.

The resulting uncertainty hinders the social sciences in producing laws similar to the confederate states of america was formed Newtons physics. Yet, once we recognize this difference it frees us to develop new approaches to the study of social phenomena. While they have not yet been fully developed they hold out great promise. The stakes could not be higher. The mistaken theories that allowed the super bubble to build, the policy errors that were made in the wake of the crash, and the ongoing mishandling of the euro crisis highlight the human suffering that can result from a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of economic systems. Recognizing the implications of jarvis chandler, our fallibility will be a great improvement in the confederate our understanding. Interpreting the economy as a reflexive system may not prevent future bubbles, crashes, or policy errors. But it may enable deeper insights into economic and The Children The Swan Essay, socio-political phenomena and help humankind to better manage its affairs in the future. I realize that my approach is still very rudimentary. Was Formed? For most of my life, I developed it in The Children of Lir: The Swan the privacy of my own mind. Only in recent years, did I have the benefit of substantive criticism.

It remains to be seen whether my conceptual framework can develop into a new paradigm. Much depends on whether reflexive feedback loops can be properly modeled. There is an obvious problem: Knightian uncertainty cannot be quantified. But it is possible to identify trends without quantifying them and changes in trends without specifying the time of their occurrence. That is of america was formed what I have done in deborah tannen and gender my boombust model (Figure 4). We can also use volatility, which is quantifiable, as a substitute for uncertainty. And there may be other techniques that address these issues such as Imperfect Knowledge Economics (Frydman Goldberg, 2013) or new approaches yet to be invented.

The new paradigm is bound to be very different from the one that failed. It cannot be timeless; it must recognize that some changes are non-recurring while others exhibit statistical regularities. Moreover, economic theory will not be able to seal itself off from the confederate of america other disciplines and amendment usa, from reality. It cannot confine itself to studying the allocation of limited means among unlimited alternative ends; it will have to states of america take into account the impact the jarvis chandler allocation may have on prevailing values and methods of the confederate was formed, production. Obviously, I shall not be able to develop my ideas on my own. That is why I am so pleased that the Journal of Economic Methodology is publishing this special issue.

1.Postscript: When I wrote this article I was troubled by cola economics, drawing an overly sharp distinction between the natural and social sciences. Beinhockers (2013) article in this symposium and a workshop at the Central European University on 8 October 2013 led me to modify my views on separating the two. I still think that the methodological convention I proposed is needed in the near term in order to break the stranglehold of rational choice theory, but I realize it could do more harm than good in the long term. As I stated above, there is a spectrum between physical and social sciences. Beinhocker is right in the confederate arguing that we should study the spectrum rather than attributing reflexivity exclusively to the domain of the social sciences. Benefits? There are many similarities between human and non-human complex systems, which could be obfuscated by the proposed convention. Instead of denying the unity of states of america, science we ought to redefine scientific method so that it is deborah tannen language and gender not confined to Poppers model. 1. Beinhocker, E. D. (2013). Reflexivity, complexity and the nature of social science.

Journal of Economic Methodology, 20, 330342. [Taylor Francis Online] 2. Frydman, R., Goldberg, M. D. (2013). The imperfect knowledge imperative in macroeconomics and finance theory. In R.Frydman E. The Confederate States Of America? S.Phelps (Eds.), Rethinking expectations: The way forward for macroeconomics (pp. 130168). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Chapter 4. 3. Second Amendment Usa? Keynes, J. M. (1936).

The general theory of employment, interest, and money. New York, NY: Harcourt Brace. 4. Knight, F. H. (1921). The Confederate? Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. 5. Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The variation of certain speculative prices. Journal of The Children The Swan and Paganism, Business, 36, 394419. [CrossRef] 6. Merton, R. K. (1949). The Confederate? Social theory and social structure. New York, NY: Free Press.

7. Popper, K. (1935/1959). Logik der Forschung. Vienna. First English edition (1959) The logic of scientific discovery. London: HutchinsonVerlag von Julius Springer. Second Amendment? [CrossRef] 8. Popper, K. The Confederate? (1944). The poverty of The Many Benefits of Hunting Essay, historicism, II. A criticism of historicist methods. Economica, 43, 119137.[CrossRef] 9. Popper, K. (1945). States Of America? The open society and its enemies.

London: Routledge. 10. Popper, K. (1957). Hatshepsut Face? The poverty of the confederate of america was formed, historicism. London: Routledge. 11. Deborah Tannen And Gender? Robbins, L. (1932). The Confederate States Of America Was Formed? An essay on the nature and significance of economic science.

London: MacMillan. 12. Soros, G. Cola Economics? (1962). The Confederate Was Formed? Burden of consciousness. (unpublished; revised version included in Soros (2006)). 13. Soros, G. (1987). The alchemy of finance.

Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Sons. 14. Soros, G. (1998). The crisis of global capitalism: Open society endangered. New York, NY: Public Affairs. 15. Soros, G. Essay? (2000). Open society: Reforming global capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs. 16.

Soros, G. (2006). The age of fallibility: Consequences of the the confederate war on terror. The Many? New York, NY: Public Affairs. 17. States Was Formed? Soros, G. (2008). The new paradigm for financial markets the credit crisis and what it means. Language? New York, NY: Public Affairs. 18. Soros, G. (2009).

The crash of 2008 and what it means: The new paradigm for financial markets. The Confederate States Of America? New York, NY: Public Affairs. 19. Soros, G. (2010). The Soros lectures at the Central European University. New York, NY: Public Affairs. 20. Jarvis Chandler? Soros, G. (2012).

Financial turmoil in the United States and Europe: Essays. New York, NY: Public Affairs.

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15 Sample Athletic Resumes and Letters. (Ive added other resources since I originally published this article so I#8217;m now up to 22 samples. Recently, I#8217;ve only been adding resources that offer something other than a generic resume template. However, if I come across a great sample only resume, I#8217;ll be sure to include it.) There are plenty of samples of athletic resumes/profiles on the internet. The Confederate Of America Was Formed. Its just tedious going through all the search results to find something useful. Well, Ive just saved you the troubleyou can thank me later. And yes, you should have an second amendment usa, athletic resume. If for no other reason, having the resume will allow you to easily complete all of the online profiles teams require prospects to complete. This way the information will be all in one place.

The following is the confederate of america was formed a list resources Ive found and actually opened and The Children The Swan and Paganism looked at. Ive divided them into two sections, the was formed, first has some sort of additional recruiting information along with the samples. The second section includes just sample resume and hatshepsut face letters. The Confederate Of America Was Formed. With the exception of the first document, they are in no particular order. The Children Essay. The resources in the samples only section arent any better or worse than those that provide some sort of guide as well. In fact, Ive included some even if I didnt think they were so great (and indicate such) so you might only the confederate states of america, open these to use for comparison purposes. I didnt include just one best because sometimes youll find the best solution for you is to use a little something from a variety of sources. Hatshepsut Face. For all of these sources, be sure to double-check with the NCAA and NAIA for the latest information since very few of these guides are updated on a regular basis. The College Planning Guide for Student Athletes by the New Hampshire Higher Education Assistance Foundation Network. This is one resource I recommend everyone download.

It includes a sample resume and cover letter but so much more. It provides an overview of the different NCAA divisions along with the percentage of the confederate states of america was formed athletes going pro. There is a sample in-season Division 1 athlete schedule to show the time commitment required. Other information includes Recruitment: Myths Facts; Tips for Campus Visits; Marketing Yourself; and a comprehensive list of important terms. Team Evanston College Soccer Recruitment Guide for cola economics Parents and states of america was formed Players. The Many Of Hunting. Comprehensive guide for soccer recruiting. Includes usual timelines, samples, and contact info but also explains different college umbrella organizations and basic financial aid information. The Confederate Was Formed. West Islip High School Guide to deborah tannen language the College Bound Athlete. Comprehensive guide including profile, sample letter, and questions to ask.

Contains information on 2016 eligibility changes and New York state specific schools. St. Ignatius College Prep Planning Guide for the College Bound Student Athlete. Of America Was Formed. Comprehensive guide that includes a checklist grid you can use for tracking your recruiting contacts with colleges. Only sample letter Ive come across that actually mentions graduation rates. Academy of the Holy Cross The NCAA College: What You Need to of Hunting Essay Know About Playing Competitive Sports in College.

Contains a sample volleyball resume and cover letter. Overall guide to recruiting process and includes the most recent changes in the confederate was formed, the NCAA academic eligibility rules. South Windsor A College Admissions Guide for the Student Athlete. From 2007 so double-check the NCAA information. Includes sample letters of introduction, 2 resumes, questions to ask, detailed timelines, and addresses core course rule. The Many Essay. Peddie School A Guide for College Bound Student-Athletes.

Basic overview with an explanation on the National Letter of Intent. States Of America. Includes sample athletic resume (useful), sample letter (useful), questions to ask, and check list. Knoxville Catholic High School College Athletics and Recruiting Handbook. Detailed description of the recruiting process. The Swan And Paganism Essay. Provides numbers of players who make it to the next level and what it means when a coach contacts you. The Confederate States Was Formed. Includes a sample letter, sample athletic resume, and cola economics sample follow-up letter.

Deerfield High School College Bound Student-Athlete Planning Guide. Good, concise overview of the recruiting process. Includes sample resume, sample letter, checklists, timeline, and questions to ask. Collegiate Soccer Academy Soccer Resume. The Confederate Of America. Only resume I#8217;ve seen that includes an a link to a video setup as an jarvis chandler, image so that it look embedded. Website also includes pre- and post-tournament sample letters to college coaches as well as other resources. Montgomery County Public Schools The Student Athlete#8217;s Game Plan. Like other guides, the NCAA information is probably dated. However, besides the sample letter and profiles, it includes a section on the role of school personnel in the application process.

Capital Area Soccer League College Guide and College Letter Samples. Overview of the recruiting process with sample letter and resume. Includes section directed to parents and useful Questions and Answers section. NCSA Writing a Recruiting Resume. The Confederate States. Includes how to hatshepsut face write an introduction, what academic information to include as well as specific information for football, basketball, baseball, soccer, volleyball, and of america was formed softball. T20 Aquatics. The Many Of Hunting. Basic sports resume for a swimmer.

Provides sample correspondence with coaches for monthly updates, unofficial visit, and post-recruit trip. My College Tracker. Includes a sample letter and profile. The Confederate States Of America Was Formed. I wouldnt use them. The profile is just basic headings. The letter is too generic and comes across as you not knowing anything about the coach, school, or recruiting rules. Gateway Region Volleyball Sample Athletic Resume. The focus is volleyball but still a good example to use. Orinda Aquatics Sports Resume, Cover Letter Correspondence. Word document that has a sample resume, coaches letter, and samples of other letters to keep the hatshepsut face, coach updated including a thank you letter. (In links after Junior Year) Campolindo High School Sample Student-Athlete Resume. Nothing special but some might find the sample letter useful.

Chesapeake Lacrosse Sample Resume and Cover Letters. States Of America Was Formed. Basic sample letter and resume. Midwest Water Polo Sample Resume and Cover Letter. Deborah Tannen. I think the letter is a little over done but might be helpful for people looking for different phrases. Humble Sample Athletic Resume. Something to the confederate of america was formed look at if only for deborah tannen language and gender formatting ideas. This is the the confederate states of america was formed, format for cola economics the profile I used for my son (DIY Profile). Castro Valley Soccer Club PDF soccer resume template. The Confederate Of America Was Formed. Nice set-up for club members since they only have to cola economics fill-in the blanks. Make Sure You Send Your Profile to the Schools Will Recruit You. (Try the sample spreadsheet below) [#8230;] together a player profile that you can mail or email a coach as a follow-up to your phone [#8230;] [#8230;] are a variety of ways to format an athletic profile for baseball.

And, yes, you want to have an the confederate of america was formed, athletic profile you can print out or email to cola economics [#8230;] [#8230;] of this assumes that you have an athletic profile as well as video available. If you don#8217;t, take care of it before you make the phone call. [#8230;] [#8230;] questionnaire until they#8217;re actually being recruited, they need to make sure they include the relevant information on their own profiles. But they can probably skip listing their [#8230;] [#8230;] 15 Sample Athletic Resumes and Letters [#8230;] [#8230;] 15 Sample Athletic Resumes and Letters No matter the sport, you#8217;re going to the confederate of america was formed have to put together an athletic resume that shows your accomplishments. Swan Essay. There is no #8220;right#8221; way to do it but it must be done. This post has links to useful examplesfind the the confederate states, one that works for you. Of Hunting Essay. [#8230;] [#8230;] together your athletic profile so it can be easily [#8230;] [#8230;] academic resume is not the same thing as an athletic profile which is a necessary part of the athletic recruiting [#8230;] [#8230;] 15 Sample Athletic Resumes and Letters Michelle Kretzschmar of DIY College Rankings has put together an states of america, excellent listing of resources to hatshepsut face help with athletic recruiting resumes, but these resources also so much more to help with the athletic recruiting process. [#8230;]

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Example Of Satire Essays Essays and Research Papers. Satire Noun. A literary manner which blends humor with criticism for the purpose of instruction or the improvement of humanity The necessary . ingredients Humor Criticism, either general criticism of humanity or human nature or specific criticism of an individual or group. Some kind of moral voice: simply mocking or criticism is not satire . The Satiric Manner Ironic/Sarcastic Either good natured criticism (Horatian) or bitterly cynical denunciation (Juvenalian) Always opposed to pretense. Comedy Central , Conan O'Brien , Jon Stewart 346 Words | 20 Pages. ?Yearly Satire Essay : Satire is typically intended to be comical although its greater purpose is often . constructive social criticism, using wit as a weapon and as a tool to draw attention to both particular and wider issues in society. In particular it aims to expose its audience to the nature of the states of america political atmosphere by exploring the second trivial and the confederate states was formed self-serving nature of The Many, governmental objectives.

Rob Sitchs television programme The Hollowmen ironically depicts the shallow values of contemporary. Aristotle , Government , Perception 793 Words | 3 Pages. EssaySatire Essay Latham Ned Successful satirists achieve a balance between amusement and criticism. . Discuss. The balance between amusement and critique is a central dynamic of successful satire , as it is through humour that the satire may censure its target, prompting the respondent to of america revaluate their own perspective with that of the satirist. Through his hyperbolic depiction of the nepotism inherent in the diplomatic posting system in The Ambassador, Sitchs. Caricature , Comedy , Humor 953 Words | 3 Pages.

?Tyler Ferrer Mrs. Fogarty A.P. Jarvis Chandler. Language Satire Creative Essay There is one health insurance policy that has recently . Of America. exceeded all of its competitors this health insurance is called Obama Care. This coverage was made by our amazing president Barrack Obama, the man of many mysteries. This president Barack Obama achieved so many miracles in his presidency he has increased our deficit over 40% in cola economics two and one-half years, soared food and gas prices, enabled the largest number of home foreclosures. Barack Obama , Bill Clinton , Democratic Party 870 Words | 3 Pages. Sample SAT Essays Up Close Below is our sample essay question, which is designed to be as close as possible to an . essay question that might appear on the SAT. The Confederate States. Youll recognize that its based on the great philosopher Moses Pelinguss assertion, Theres no success like failure, which we have referred to throughout this chapter. This particular essay topic presents you with a very broad idea and then asks you to explain your view and back it up with concrete examples . Not every SAT essay topic will. Dot-com bubble , Essay , Essays 2405 Words | 7 Pages. Analyse the ways in which satire can engage and provoke its audience Satire aims to expose to its audience the shortcomings of . humanity through an assemblage of wit and mockery; it provides momentum for tannen change and reform through ridicule.

Robert Sitchs television program The Hollowmen seeks to expose the nepotistic and the confederate of america was formed often superficial nature of Australian politics through the and gender use of political satire , showing us that Australian politics is inherently without values or moral grounding (Louise. Gender , Gender role , Government 968 Words | 3 Pages. ?Genesis Sosa EN 102 Satire Essay March 12, 2014 Lets Get Fat The United States is one of the nations with more cases . of overweight people and obesity. Over the years this problem has increased. Experts in states was formed the field say that some of the causes for this disease are the lack of exercise, too much fast food, little sleep and stress, genetic problems and jarvis chandler others.

Many people think that buying diet pills or tea they can stop be overweight at any time. We have to the confederate states of america was formed implement solutions such as balance. Adipose tissue , Cancer , Dieting 1160 Words | 3 Pages. so disgusted, and amendment annoyed. I believe that is where it all started, that is when I got traumatized. Now every time, I hear someone breath loud, his face comes . to haunt me. The Confederate Was Formed. This has been affecting me for years.. To demonstrate my disgust, a great example : My amazing younger brother, knows that I hate when people breathe loudly. So he decides to do it on purpose just to annoy me which gets me so aggravated.

I feel like taking him and hatshepsut face chocking him so hard. Of America. Well not literally, well maybe a bit. It's. 2007 singles , 2008 singles , Breathing 1322 Words | 4 Pages. Sample Essay Read this example sample essay . Then answer the hatshepsut face questions below. The qualities of a hero . The Confederate States. include selflessness, having the inspiration to be a founder and being courageous. With these qualities in second amendment usa mind, it is easy to of america see why many Emiratis see Sheikh Zayed as a hero. Cola Economics. He embodied the three qualities mentioned above and these heroic qualities were seen in his life and work. He was born in Al Ain and had a simple education which included learning the Koran and mathematics. His.

Abu Dhabi , Al Ain , Hero 1313 Words | 4 Pages. age of expansion following on the confederate states of america was formed an age of discovery, its expansion led to still further discovery about architectural design and decoration. Language And Gender. Section A: . Interiors S.Maria Della Salute (1631-1682) The interior of the confederate states was formed, S.Maria Della Salute is a very good example of Baroque Architecture and deborah and gender design. States Of America. It displays the Baroque essence in of Lir: The a way but is not completely over ornamented nor does it contain any unsuitable details. Marble is mainly used in the columns and the base appears to be gilded in the confederate of america was formed bronze. Sculptures. Baroque , Baroque music , Dome 1264 Words | 4 Pages.

Examples from Reflection Essays Disciplinary Awareness The research I did this summer focused on cola economics sorption of cesium and . strontium by soils. These two chemicals are commonly found in chemical contaminants My research also focused on the distribution coefficient which is a measurement of how much of a solvent is [absorbed] by a geologic medium. I found that many of the the confederate readings I came across regarding abortion seemed to convey a strong belief in human rights, which was demonstrated by cola economics, the dichotomy. Abortion , Clean Water Act , Human rights 1543 Words | 5 Pages. Example Essay He that is good for making excuses is the confederate states was formed, seldom good for anything else. -- Ben Franklin. As early as the second usa . founding of the United States of America, Mr. Franklin observed society using the excuse, I don't have enough time and states was formed it negative effects on The Children and Paganism Essay their lives.

Today, it is frequently used as an excuse to justify the lack of time management skills. The Confederate States Of America Was Formed. The effects on kids, work, or even in family life are sometimes devastating. In a day there are 24 hours, and time is The Children The and Paganism Essay, available. Benjamin Franklin , Family , Franklin Planner 950 Words | 3 Pages. idea of ghosts is far too exaggerated to be real. According to psychologydictionary.org the paranormal is of america, designating any phenomenon comprising the Essay . transfer of data or energy which can't be described by the confederate, present scientific insights (What). For example , a couple of years ago I was in my house alone. I was walking towards the front door and a pair of scissors fell from the second usa countertop and on to the floor. It scared me to death and it was like the scissors had been thrown. I do not know if it was. Cryptid , Ghost , Loch Ness Monster 1320 Words | 5 Pages.

mess you up for states life. Benefits Of Hunting. Therefore these experiences will become a necessary example to teach you how to deal with the unfairness . in life. When I first started middle school I felt so out of was formed, place, I mean I had to deal some very flaky people and deborah language I was very stressed out a lot. The reason why I was so stressed out the confederate states was formed, was because of the changes that I had to endure around and to me. For example I had to deal with the disturbing fact that I was growing hair in Benefits various places on my. College , English-language films , High school 1128 Words | 3 Pages. ?John Doe Professor Mansito ENC 1101 12:00-1:50 21 October 2013 Essay 1 Sexuality: The 1950s to states of america Today Sexuality, like many other . things in second usa our world, is an ever changing thing. The ideas and states of america was formed connotations surrounding it change from tannen and gender, generation to generation. Because of this, the of america idea of sex in the 1950s is completely different from the idea of deborah and gender, sex today. Today, sexuality can be expressed in almost anything we do.

Commercials, billboards, TV shows, movies, magazine articles, and many other. 20th century , 21st century , Global warming 1105 Words | 4 Pages. other areas) show specific anatomical and the confederate functional features in professional and semi-professional musicians. One of the most visible . benefits of playing a musical instrument is the hatshepsut face improvement of memory capacity and ability. Was Formed. For example , the constant use of both the left and right hemispheres of the The Swan Essay brain simultaneously in someone who plays the piano exercises memory. Thanks to this, it is also believed that people who play musical instruments are less prone to have neurodegenerative. Brain , Intelligence , Intelligence quotient 946 Words | 3 Pages. of the states was formed week when Pete receives big shipments of jarvis chandler, inventory for the store. When that occurs the retail part of the Garden Center can be really busy for a few . days after stocking the new inventory. Inventory can range from a variety of things, for example ; garden rocks in assorted rock pallets, mulch bags sorted out by states of america, type, hay bales stacked, and The Children of Lir: Swan and Paganism even bird baths.

So as one of the states was formed three managers, Pete has to make sure things go well and items are placed correctly and neatly throughout the cola economics store, in. Annual plant , Evergreen , Garden 1115 Words | 3 Pages. of essay preparation What differentiated higher quality example essays from the confederate of america was formed, lower quality example . essays ? There were several different aspects that differentiated higher quality example essay from lower quality example essays . Firstly, the higher quality example essays , such as the Distinction and High Distinction essays provided great structure and an argument with a very good presentation. The introduction in the Distinction essay introduced relevant literature and addressed the essay topic. Citation , Essay , Essays 761 Words | 3 Pages. Satire Essay on Resource Conservation By the amendment usa year 2100 many of the resources we rely on in the present will be used up. In . addition, the world will be a barren wasteland due to pollution. Lets face it, we destroy habitats, cause erosion, waste water and other valuable resources, and thats only the beginning of it. Everyday an excessive amount of pollution is released into the Earths atmosphere.

Motor vehicle emissions are the leading cause of air pollution, but thats not going to stop anybody. Automobile , Carbon dioxide , Earth 675 Words | 2 Pages. Enlightenment Satire Essay 1. Name two themes for the play. The Confederate Of America. Discuss how Moliere develops each. Hatshepsut Face. The play Tartuffe written by . Moliere depicts two fundamental themes, Hypocrisy and Deception. States Of America. Tartuffe is a satire of the religious fanaticism and amendment usa hypocrisy and deception were the the confederate was formed major ideas that Moliere was trying to point out. Hypocrisy is one claiming to jarvis chandler have moral or religious believes, but doesnt really possess it. Its the act of not practicing what one preaches. Moliere was trying to get. Circle in the Square Theatre , Deception , Hypocrisy 1398 Words | 4 Pages. English IV-4 9 February 2014 Satire : The Icebreaker Through previous centuries to present day, literature has contained numerous literary . devices in works to create an alternate meaning.

This alternate meaning often referred to as reading between the lines can be achieved through many literary devices, but one stands out. Satire , the Oxford Dictionary refers to satire as use of the confederate of america was formed, humor, irony, exaggeration, or ridicule to jarvis chandler expose and criticize peoples stupidity or vices, particularly in. Weird Al Yankovic , Chamillionaire , Comedy 1053 Words | 3 Pages. AP English Language Composition A satire is a work that is intended to ridicule or mock ideas, persons, events or doctrines, or to make . fun of human faults or weaknesses. The Onion News Network is a network that features satirical reporting on international, national, and local news. The Onion created an article called MagnaSoles, and this is states was formed, a satire . Jarvis Chandler. It speaks about this so-called MagnaSole product and really tries to advertise and sell it. Many rhetorical strategies and appeals show up. Satire , The Onion 918 Words | 3 Pages.

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Edit your speech for standard grammar and language usage. Example Essay on the Definition of Friendship If asked, many people would say that their friends are some of the most important people in their lives. However, sometimes it is hard to cola economics recognize the value of the confederate, a friend and see exactly how much they do for us and. Friendship , Interpersonal relationship , Love 1157 Words | 3 Pages. ?In this essay , it is about the journal article that I had presented in The Children of Lir: The Swan and Paganism the Journal Club. States Of America. In the following, I am going to summarize the cola economics . concerned clinical issue / practice presented in the journal article. In the of america was formed second part of the essay , I will analyze the concerned clinical issue / practice and relate to my prior learning and/or experience. Next, I will discuss on what I have learned from the language and gender concerned clinical issue / practice. Lastly, I am going to recommend strategies to facilitate my learning. Health care provider , Illness , Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator 839 Words | 3 Pages.

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statement in this argument? 3. States. Whats the topic sentence of the writers personal view? 4. Note down some of the Essay transitions used in this argument: 5. The Confederate Was Formed. What . is the wrap-up in this essay ? Rhetorical Devices Find the following devices in this argumentative essay . There might be more than one example of each. Annotate the essay to show these features. Use of personal pronouns Exclamations Hyperbole Imperatives Juxtaposition Modern idioms and The Many Essay trendy phrases Non-sentences Repetition Rhetorical questions. Arc de Triomphe , Food , Hamburger 683 Words | 3 Pages.

define satire and its purpose. Finally, end with a thesis statement which indicates your purpose. Your thesis should focus on how . chivalry and courtly love can be satirized. States Was Formed. MUST BE 5-7 sentences. MUST HAVE a thesis statement at the end of the paragraph. (many points will be lost if either of these are missing) B. Body Paragraphs #1 #2: Focus this paragraph on The Children of Lir: Swan Essay chivalry, explaining how real examples of it appear in SGGK FMA and how it can be seen in satire in Monty Python. Holy Grail , John Cleese , Monty Python 359 Words | 3 Pages. ?Jack Hamilton AP English 3 Mrs. Rothbard Period 5 December 21, 2014 Bill O'Reilly Editorial Essay Whether it be from his television show . The O'Reilly Factor, one of the confederate states of america, his Killing books, or from editorial articles, it is fair to say that most Americans know who Bill O'Reilly is. O'Reilly is known for his conservative views that can be attributed in part to his coming from a classic Irish Catholic family and [having] attended private catholic schools, according to his biography on hatshepsut face IMDb.

Though. Bill O'Reilly , Editorial , Federal government of the United States 939 Words | 4 Pages. ingredients. Anyone who has common sense can tell that this is a lie. How can one possibly tell if an ingredient is states of america was formed, safe is it is not first tested on a . mouse or rabbit? The tests that are done on hatshepsut face animals allow them to gladly take death when it comes.

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Though all too often unseen by hatshepsut face, the general population, little people really put their minds and physical advantages to good use. They find . ways to better the was formed community as a whole despite the injudicious of cola economics, tall peoples actions. For example , we see more and more midget-sized cars because they require less gas and states of america was formed raw materials during use. They are like tiny little motorized armies racing down the street and flying around corners. Benefits Of Hunting. Without a doubt, these automobiles must have been based. Dwarfism , Form of the Good , Human 1183 Words | 3 Pages. Example Literary Essay : The Giver by Lois Lowry Example Introduction Paragraph: The real voyage of discovery . consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes. This quote by Marcel Proust speaks of discovering what?s right in was formed front of you by seeing it differently, with new eyes. The main character, Jonas, in of Lir: Lois Lowry?s The Giver goes through a similar experience when he discovers his Capacity to the confederate states was formed See Beyond. Jonas begins to see his Community differently, with an awareness or. Lois Lowry , Newbery Medal , The Giver 856 Words | 3 Pages. Satirical Essay Directions Satirical essay writing is a style of writing that uses satire to criticize or poke . fun at a subject.

A satirical writer often uses such devices as hyperbole and irony to get his point across. Satirical essays are often aimed at The Many of Hunting Essay political candidates, celebrities or situations that are absurd. The satire writer often seeks to the confederate states of america provide relevant, useful, eye-opening information within the scope of his essay . Learning to tannen and gender write satirically is easy once you understand the techniques. Caricature , Comedy , Irony 705 Words | 3 Pages. ? EXAMPLE 1 ESSAY Life sometimes goes wrong under the best of of america, circumstances, but what if you spend your days in deborah a hospital bed . slowly suffocating to the confederate states was formed death as cancer eats away at your body? Youre horrified, your quality of life is at tannen and gender an all time low and states of america you cant see any point in delaying the inevitable. Jarvis Chandler. That is why Physician assisted suicide should be a choice for patients who are incurable.

Physician assisted suicide (PAS) should be legal in cases that involve unbearable suffering or. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis , Death , Euthanasia 1509 Words | 5 Pages. childhood can become set principles we live by in of america was formed later life or can influence the hatshepsut face decisions we make to give us our 'world view' aswe can not find other . Of America. examples due to age. Things such as age, gender and commuity will also play a part in shaping the effects of your world view. A World view is described by cola economics, many different people in various ways for the confederate states example Samovar and Porter (2003) (citing Rapport and and Paganism Overing 2000) will describe a world view as 'the common English translation of the German word Weltanschauung. I Shall Be Released , Learning , Life 1025 Words | 3 Pages. Module C: Satire Part A: Discussion Essay : While the states was formed satirist makes us laugh, the main objective of the satirist is to . cause us, by the use of The Many, various techniques, to reflect on the confederate of america was formed ourselves as humans. In reflecting upon The Many Benefits Essay, ourselves we learn important lessons about people, about issues confronting society and about life in general. Question: In an essay of about 1800-2000 words, demonstrate the truth of was formed, this quotation by referring to George Orwells Animal Farm and two related texts of your. Comedy , George Orwell , Humor 2102 Words | 6 Pages. -pause- *sigh* Well fine then, it you want a proper introduction, then here it is: Have you ever decided to just go for a nice walk outside to get some . exercise and enjoy the sun? (well if not, lets pretend that you have for the purpose of this essay ). And then, out of nowhere, you realize that something is missing.

That THING, is actually something really quite important. In fact, your life depends on it. The Children Of Lir: Essay. Well that THING, ladies and the confederate of america was formed gentlemen, is the forest, and the birds and the bees and the. Carbon dioxide , Forest , Oxide 1094 Words | 3 Pages. Swift said that he wrote Gullivers Travels to jarvis chandler 'vex the world'. Discuss the purpose of Augustan satire , with reference to works by Swift and . Pope. This essay will strive to prove that the Augustan Age was the the confederate first example of a literary community using satire to of Lir: Swan Essay directly challenge cultural, social, political and challenging intellectual issues. It is quite usual to find in satiric works of the 18th century an unusually direct assault from the writers against contemporary government officials. 18th century , Alexander Pope , Augustan literature 2704 Words | 7 Pages.

The Role of the confederate states was formed, Satire in Gulliver's Travels The Role of The Children of Lir: The Swan and Paganism, Satire in Gullivers Travels Sir Thomas More wrote Utopia in 1516, Daniel Defoe produced Robinson Crusoe in states of america was formed 1719, Jonathan . Swift brought forth Gullivers Travels in 1726. The first coined the much used today word utopia, the second created the of Lir: The and Paganism Essay first English novel about reason and moral values, and the third fathered probably the best satiric masterpiece. Contemporaneity, a few centuries later, is still amazed at the strength and states validity of these notions. Satire , Swifts hard-hitting. Daniel Defoe , Gulliver's Travels , Human 1841 Words | 5 Pages. Example MBA admission essay The world of finance and The Many Benefits of Hunting business is the confederate states of america was formed, a complicated and ubiquitous arena, and the axis around which . most of our societys most important issues move. Deborah Tannen And Gender. Having worked for a number of years in a multitude of administrative positions, I feel in many ways as though I have merely skimmed the surface of a field that is brimming with professional opportunities. The pursuit of of america, a Masters in Business Administration will enable me access tap previously unused resources in my own. Administration , Business , Business school 873 Words | 3 Pages.

? Essay 1 The methods of political control used by the Han and Imperial Roman Empires were different, as in of Lir: The the degree of citizen participation . in government because of the confederate of america was formed, how each empire utilized it to control the people. However, the use of theologies to justify rule was a similar method used by the two empires because it allowed leaders to win over the people in more ways than one. In addition, the use of Benefits, militaries to control the population and outlying territories was a similar method because. Ancient Rome , Byzantine Empire , Constantine I 2376 Words | 6 Pages. Satire Essay Many things are happening right now on our earth.

For instance we are dealing with global warming, loss of . freshwater, Ebola outbreak and last but not least over population. The Confederate States Of America. Although I have many solutions to all of them, I believe that we should deal with overpopulation by ways of sizing down. I propose that we use labour camps to effectively do thi Every country must have at least one labour camp to cut down on population, but countries with more people must have more camps. The camps. Barbed wire , Carrying capacity , Demography 503 Words | 1 Pages. ART-O-METER scale essay Music is a form of expression; it is art, and amendment what makes it of highest or lowest value can often be a matter of . personal choice. There are, however, universal ways of states was formed, looking at a songs value. Deborah And Gender. First, one can analyze a song based on the message the writer wants to was formed reveal.

Words construct meaning, which ultimately reveals a theme, and the power of the The Children of Lir: The and Paganism theme helps listeners decide a songs worth and universal impact. Closely linked to a songs theme is the songs literary. Aspect of the confederate, music , Broken heart , Fiction 1377 Words | 4 Pages. ! Analyzing Essay Psychologist Martin E. P. Seligmans article On Learned Helplessness talks about cola economics what happens when people go through . traumatic events and how the the confederate handle the situations. Seligman ` studied the conditions that can lead to hatshepsut face feelings of fear, helplessness, depression, and competence. By applying his theories and ideas I will analyze the article Gunman Kills Himself After Hostage Drama by Charles P. States Of America. Wallace and Tim Waters. In the article by Wallace and of Hunting Waters, a twenty-six. Depression , Emotion , Harry Dean Stanton 990 Words | 4 Pages. Example of an Ethnolect Based Essay.

travelled, can appreciate humour, and that he would like to be perceived as an the confederate of america, educated person with further academic goals. The phonological features of a . Benefits Of Hunting Essay. persons speech are the most obvious signposts to states of america his or her origins or mother tongue. For example , Bill pronounces the tannen not in not really, correct, just and want by ending with a glottal stop (/?/), rather than the voiceless consonant (/t/). This occurs as final consonants are much less frequent in Mandarin than in English and thus they. Australian English , British English , Dialect 953 Words | 3 Pages. The Importance of Being Earnest Essay Exam PURPOSE OF AN ESSAY EXAM: The purposes of this type of the confederate of america, exam complement the amendment purposes . of this course: 1. to prepare you for college English and 2. to the confederate of america prepare you to write in all college classes. This essay will require that you synthesize the major concepts in the play we have studied and further develop your writing skills. Cola Economics. This type of essay is very common in college. You will frequently be asked to write an exam essay in a 1 to 2 hour test period. John Ruskin , Neo-Victorian , The Importance of Being Earnest 831 Words | 3 Pages. Narrative Essay Vs.

Descriptive Essay. ? Narrative Essays Are a Great Read Name ENG121 Professor June 16, 2014 Narrative Essays Are a . Great Read Narrative essays and the confederate states Descriptive essays can be similar but they are different in nature. Second Amendment. The narrative essay I Want a Wife is more compelling than the the confederate states of america descriptive essay Homeless because the tannen language and gender narrative essay has a point of view, uses humor and satire , and uses tone and language that can draw the reader in. Narration is storytelling from the perspective of. Essay , Essays , Homelessness 1604 Words | 7 Pages. Huckleberry Finn and the use of Satire. Huck Finn and the use of Satire Mark Twain's The Adventures of of america, Huckleberry Finn has been controversial ever since its release in 1884. It . has been called everything from the root of modern American literature to a piece of deborah language, racist trash. Many scholars have argued about Huck Finn being prejudiced. The Confederate Was Formed. In The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Mark Twain uses satire to mock many different aspects of the modern world. Despite the second usa fact that many critics have accused Mark Twains novel of promoting racism. Adventures of Huckleberry Finn , American literature , Mark Twain 1112 Words | 3 Pages.

anyone believe that they were a witch. This is also seen as injustice because it is of america, definitely not fair or moral. In The Crucible, Miller uses character to . Hatshepsut Face. show that just because someone is different could possibly mean that they were witches. Of America. An example of jarvis chandler, character in the film was when Giles Corey had just asked how someones day was and a fire had made flames. This made him convicted to states was formed being a witch just because how creepy people had seen him as. The Many Benefits Of Hunting. Justice cannot be seen here because justice is. Arthur Miller , Daniel Day-Lewis , John Proctor 899 Words | 3 Pages.

Descriptive Essay Example We all know college is hard; if it were easy, everyone would have . a degree and the confederate states was formed no one would ever ask for help. But here at Crafton Hills College, tutors are available to help out students in jarvis chandler any way, so that those who struggle can do well and be successful. States Of America Was Formed. These mentors dont just lecture, they take the time to make sure students understand and tannen and gender comprehend what is being taught. Tutors are at hand for the confederate was formed a variety of amendment usa, subjects, some have. Learning , Teaching assistant , Tutor 1006 Words | 3 Pages. Candide: A French Satire by Voltaire. Let me start off by saying that I thoroughly enjoy satires ; it is the genre I appreciate most for its employment of wit and was formed militant irony. Cola Economics. . Upon delving into Candide by Voltaire I was lured in by its display of the confederate states, ridiculously brutal situations that dramatized the many evils of human experience. The Many Essay. I think Voltaire wonderfully crafted this particular satire through his conglomeration of themes and symbolisms. Seemingly swiftly Voltaire takes the reader through a manifold of episodes of extreme cruelty. Best of all possible worlds , Bildungsroman , Candide 912 Words | 3 Pages.

spaces to states was formed people who dont live in Ann Arbor who commute from all over the surrounding areas. For example , my MTH 169 teacher, Mr. King, would . commute from Farmington to Ann Arbor every day. When in the class, he was always on time because he had another class before us so he had the opportunity to find a parking space, but if he arrived later than that he wouldnt have found one. Another example was in hatshepsut face winter 2012, my boyfriends mother had exited the Bailey Library, and immediately a person asked. Ann Arbor, Michigan , Bus , Bus stop 1050 Words | 4 Pages. Tyler Pollard Mrs. Breitwieser AP Language and Composition, Group A January 13, 2013 Satire It seems that companies will do anything to . get a consumer to buy their product. Through ridiculous marketing schemes companies are always trying to the confederate states of america get an upper hand on the rest of the completion.

In a mock press release by from The Onion, a publication devoted to humor and satire , the writer uses a variety of techniques to jarvis chandler make fun of marketing techniques advertisers use to of america was formed sale their product. The. Comedy , Human body , Jonathan Swift 922 Words | 3 Pages. boot-camp not as a military training program, but rather as a group of individuals who are driven by a common goal? If we can do this then we can begin . making comparisons with other groups of hatshepsut face, individuals and notice a great deal of similarities. For example , universities offer a wide variety of clubs such as the Philosophy Club or the Student Veterans Organization, and states of america these clubs are formed because like-minded individuals driven by a common goal congregated and bonded to birth their club. Just like. Bond , Bonds, Lancashire , Marine 900 Words | 2 Pages.

Blazing Satire Blazing Saddles, a Mel Brooks film, is a perfect example of satire . The main object of the cola economics . movie is to the confederate of america was formed make fun of the western genre of films. Mel Brooks is notorious for his satires of many different films and film genres, and Blazing Saddles follows true to form as, in some opinions, one of the funniest films made. Hatshepsut Face. Many of the film's ideas and problems are common in most westerns, although Mel Brooks has added a twist. In addition, the movie pokes fun at a more modern theme. Blazing Saddles , Film , Film genre 918 Words | 3 Pages. Untrustworthy President Example Essay. We've now had 38 straight months of above 8% unemployment, the longest streak since the Great Depression. Keeping our country and government operating . The Confederate Of America Was Formed. smoothly is another area where uncertainty surrounds our presidents capabilities.

That is an example of our tax money being insecure in the hands of our president. We pay more money a year than anyone can fathom and The Children of Lir: Swan it is squandered in this country and around the the confederate was formed world in of Lir: The ways that do not help solve our problems we face here at home or around the. Federal government of the United States , Illegal immigration , Illegal immigration to the United States 957 Words | 3 Pages. ?College Essay Willem E. Servaes To survive and thrive College! The time has finally come; the the confederate states Goal at the end of the second rainbow. I . survived! survive 1. To remain alive or in existence. 2. To carry on despite hardships or trauma; persevere.

3. To remain functional or usable: I survived my move from a Belgian, Dutch-speaking school to an English speaking kindergarten in states Chicago. I survived my move from Chicago, to Maryland and ultimately I survived my long years in a Catholic. Classroom , High school , Learning 828 Words | 3 Pages.

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